And you may ask yourself ‘Well, how did I get here?’
New Year’s Day and time to take stock. Finishing the year outside the drop zone after completing a full round of matches is at the higher end of expectations. 16th at the halfway point. Not half bad. Tidy. Better than that, it’s half-tidy. And the results against Palace and Leicester provide drops of cheery optimism to spice up the steamy glass of mulled pragmatism and anguish from which we are apt to sup.
Just a few days ago the prospect of facing free-scoring Tottenham after away fixtures against two teams that had just inflicted back-to-back defeats against the previously unassailable reigning champs Man City was daunting. I’d long-since earmarked this fixture as one to sit back and enjoy as an impartial connoisseur of the Beautiful Game.
However, Tottenham’s vaunted title ambitions were dealt a huge blow as they imploded against Wolves last time out. This unlikeliest of results combined with our astonishing performance against Leicester - the Etheridge penalty save, Bamba clearance and Camerasa wonder goal fully emblematic of an indomitable spirit - confirms that we are still capable of providing a surprise and defying expectations.
We’ve been written off many times of course. The most damming prediction, made pre-season by soccer shock-jock pundit and provocateur Chris Sutton was that we would be relegated with the worst ever PL points total. In 2008 Derby County achieved just one win all season and amassed a total of 11 points. Warnock has used this and other dismissive thick-witted remarks to cohere the squad into something akin to a siege mentality. Certainly we fear no-one in our pursuit of the improbable and a compulsion to upset the odds. We’re making progress and it’s so much more fun this time around (‘into the Blue again, after the money’s gone’) but the nagging doubts remain. So where to look for some reassurance?
The respected Euro Club Index ranks football clubs across Europe. We currently sit between Antalyaspor of Turkey and Empoli of Italy (no, nor me…) at 159th in the table of leading European teams. I think we can accept their conclusion that we have a 0% chance of winning the title, a fate shared with all teams below Arsenal who themselves are given just a 0.1% probability. Where it gets interesting, and more than a little encouraging, is that although we are only predicted to amass a total of 34 points for the season, this will in fact ensure our survival. Hurrah!
The plausibility of a victory today is rated at a piddling 10.4%, but bear in mind that the Leicester victory was achieved in the face of an 11.7% likelihood. And Tottenham conspired to lose to Wolves despite an overwhelming 78.8% probability of victory. So who knows? Anything is possible. ‘Am I right? Am I wrong?’
Well, in the event, wrong. But just very. Oh dear. In a cast iron calamitous start we went behind after two minutes as a grateful Harry Kane bundled the ball over the line after it might have been cleared by Morrison. Ten minutes later Eriksen was given time on the edge of the box to swivel, turn and place the ball into Etheridge’s corner. And just to allay any lingering doubt that the match was dead as a contest, Son delivered the last rites with the simplest of finishes after 26 minutes.
Tottenham’s control of the game was absolute, a midfield of Alli, Eriksen, Son and the roaming Kane playing a rotational style that completely threw our mesmerised midfield which seemed rooted to the spot, and a disorganised back line that was always susceptible to the incisive final pass. We’ve seen this style of play previously from Man City, United and Arsenal but today the early goals seemed to unsettle the players to the extent that they seemed incapable of responding.
We did have the occasional break out but our offensive play was so disjointed that we rarely entered the opposition box other than from dead ball situations. In beating Tottenham on the weekend Wolves were able to defend deep but without standing off, and set up the counter attack in greater numbers, blessed with the personnel to break with full effect. We were incapable of achieving this.
The second half saw an improvement as we took a more aggressive approach, closing down in midfield and stepping up at the back. But Tottenham still dominated possession and although they were not so relentless we had few opportunities to venture beyond the halfway line. Hoillet who had replaced the ineffective Murphy at half time had some impact and Arter and Paterson should be lauded for their tireless running but chances were few, Tottenham playing well within themselves and quietly closing the game down as the disgruntled home fans sloped off early.
Driving home, Warnock’s post match interview was insightful and disarmingly honest. He was clearly outraged that his charges had failed to put his plans into effect (it was reassuring to know that there had been a plan…) saying that he’d lost patience with certain players. He hinted at changes, but confessed that getting the right players at the right price in the January transfer window is going to be problematic.
I just checked and we’ve dropped a place in the Euro Club Index and our projected season’s total sees us relegated on goal difference ensuring that the pessimists hold sway once again. Ah well, ‘same as it ever was, same as it ever was’. Happy New Year!
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